Arkansas vs Texas Tech Sweet 16 Betting Preview, Odds & Predictions for March 27
The #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-5.5) face the #10 Arkansas Razorbacks in a highly anticipated Sweet 16 matchup at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Tip-off is set for 10:09pm ET on TBS/truTV.
Texas Tech player shoots basketball
Arkansas (22-13) enters with momentum after upsetting #7 Kansas and #2 St. John's, while Texas Tech (27-8) advanced by defeating UNC-Wilmington and Drake. The Red Raiders are -250 moneyline favorites, implying a 71.43% win probability, with the total set at 147.5.
Key Factors:
- Arkansas regains junior forward Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) from knee injury
- Texas Tech's Chance McMillian remains questionable
- Darrion Williams recovered from ankle sprain to score 28 points vs Drake
- Red Raiders are 23-5 as favorites; Razorbacks 8-10 as underdogs
- Arkansas is 14-4 ATS this season
Public Betting Trends:
- 65% of moneyline bets on Texas Tech
- 64% of spread bets on Arkansas
- 78% of total bets on Over 147.5
Arkansas's recent upset wins over legendary coaches Bill Self and Rick Pitino, combined with John Calipari's tournament experience and Thiero's return, suggest they can keep this game close. The model projects a final score of Texas Tech 76.7, Arkansas 72.8.
Prediction: Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
The Razorbacks' strong ATS record and momentum make them attractive as underdogs, especially with Thiero's return providing additional depth against a Texas Tech team still managing injuries.