The 2025 NCAA Tournament opener features 1-seed Houston (30-4) facing 16-seed SIU Edwardsville (22-11), with Houston favored by 29 points at INTRUST Bank Arena.

While Houston ranks 3rd in KenPom with the nation's 2nd-rated defense, several factors suggest SIUE could keep this game closer than expected:

• Houston plays at an extremely slow pace (360th out of 363 teams), limiting scoring opportunities
• The Cougars are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games
• SIUE's defense ranks 51st nationally in scoring (66.1 PPG) and 32nd in opponent shooting (40.2%)
• The underdogs shoot well from three-point range (36%) and have a dynamic scorer in Ray'Sean Taylor (19.3 PPG)

Historical trends show elite 1-seeds often struggle to cover massive spreads in early tournament games, focusing on survival rather than margin of victory. Houston may also rest starters if building an early lead.

SIUE's defensive prowess and methodical style match up well against Houston's three-point reliant offense (39.8%). The Cougars could struggle to pull away if their outside shooting goes cold.

Best Bet: SIUE +29 (-110) at Caesars

Game Info:

• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• Location: INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS
• Line: Houston -29 (-110)
• Total: 126.5
• Moneyline: Houston -1000, SIUE +3300

While an historic upset remains unlikely, SIUE's disciplined approach and scoring potential make them a strong bet to stay within the number.

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