The Chicago Cubs face the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday evening in an NL Central matchup. While both teams are out of playoff contention, there's betting value to analyze in the total runs market.

The game total is set at 7.5 runs, with first-inning run odds at -110 for both yes and no.

Pitching Matchup Analysis:

• Justin Dunn (Reds): 1-2, 4.63 ERA in 23.1 innings

  • Has allowed home runs in all 5 starts this season (7 total HRs)
  • Tendency to give up long balls could push game over

• Wade Miley (Cubs): 1-0, 2.84 ERA in 19 innings

  • Has not allowed any home runs this season
  • Strong performance favors the under

Recent Head-to-Head Trends:

• 6 of last 7 meetings had 8+ runs scored
• 4 of those 6 games reached double-digit runs
• Strong history of high-scoring games between these teams

Key Factors to Consider:

• Limited sample size for both pitchers (combined 42.1 innings)
• Dunn's home run vulnerability
• Miley's solid run prevention
• Teams' recent high-scoring history against each other

The combination of Dunn's home run issues and recent high-scoring trends between these teams suggests potential for runs, despite Miley's strong showing this season.

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