UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje - Lightweight Title Fight Odds and Analysis

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje - Lightweight Title Fight Odds and Analysis

By Michael Peterson

March 5, 2025 at 05:10 PM

UFC 274 brings an explosive lightweight title fight between champion Charles Oliveira (-170) and challenger Justin Gaethje (+140). The co-main event features a women's strawweight title rematch between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza.

Charles Oliveira (32-8-0):

  • On a 10-fight win streak
  • UFC record holder: Most submissions (15) and finishes (18)
  • Competed at featherweight (9-7) before moving to lightweight
  • Finishing rate: 9 KO/TKO, 20 submissions, 3 decisions
  • Known for slow starts but excellent recovery

Justin Gaethje (23-3-0):

  • Division I All-American wrestler
  • Previous title shot loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov
  • Recent wins over Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson
  • Finishing rate: 19 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions
  • Known for powerful striking and wrestling background

Fight Analysis:

  • Gaethje's power gives him early KO potential
  • Oliveira has been knocked down in recent title fights
  • Oliveira's superior submission skills provide multiple paths to victory
  • Gaethje's wrestling defense will be tested
  • Oliveira's ability to take backs while standing is a key factor

Prediction: Either an early Gaethje knockout or an Oliveira submission in later rounds. Oliveira's diverse skill set gives him more paths to victory, despite Gaethje's knockout power.

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