Will Cincinnati Cover the 13.5-Point Spread vs Alabama in College Football Playoff?

Will Cincinnati Cover the 13.5-Point Spread vs Alabama in College Football Playoff?

By Michael Peterson

January 10, 2025 at 11:11 AM

The Cincinnati Bearcats face their biggest challenge yet as they take on Alabama in the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on December 31st at 3:30 p.m.

Alabama enters as a 13.5-point favorite (-110) after finishing 12-1 and winning the SEC Championship. Cincinnati completed a perfect 13-0 season in the American Athletic Conference, becoming the first non-Power 5 team to make the playoff.

Key Statistics:

  • Cincinnati is 8-5 against the spread this season
  • Bearcats average 19 more points and 124 more yards than Alabama typically allows
  • Alabama averages 24 more points and 191 more yards than Cincinnati typically allows

Quarterback Matchup:

  • Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder: 66% completion, 30 TDs, 8 INTs, 164.8 passer rating
  • Alabama's Bryce Young: 43 TDs, 4 INTs, 175.5 passer rating

Defensive Comparison: Cincinnati ranks:

  • 6th in opponent points per game
  • 6th in opponent yards per game
  • 3rd in takeaways per game
  • 3rd in opponent completion percentage

Alabama ranks:

  • 7th in opponent yards per game
  • 2nd in opponent yards per rush
  • 8th in sack percentage
  • 63rd in pass yards allowed per game

The key factor could be Cincinnati exploiting Alabama's relatively weaker pass defense. While the Bearcats showed they can compete with elite teams last year against Georgia, Alabama's championship pedigree and motivation to avoid an upset make covering the spread a significant challenge.

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