Texas Tech enters as a 2.5-point favorite with -140 moneyline odds against Arizona (+115) in this Big 12 Tournament semifinal matchup. The over/under is set at 152.5 points for the 6:30pm MT tip-off at T-Mobile Center.

These teams split their regular season series with each winning at home - Texas Tech prevailed 70-54 in Lubbock while Arizona won 82-73 in Tucson. The key differences were shooting efficiency and pace of play.

Arizona's offensive success hinges on pushing the tempo (56th in adjusted tempo) and getting out in transition. Meanwhile, Texas Tech prefers a slower pace (280th) and excels at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 29.5% (7th nationally).

The matchup features two elite offenses with Texas Tech ranking 6th and Arizona 13th in adjusted efficiency. Defensively, they're nearly identical at 30th and 32nd respectively.

Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin was dominant in the regular season meetings, totaling 41 points and 29 rebounds. Arizona needs more from Caleb Love, who shot just 7-for-28 in those games.

The Pick: Texas Tech -2.5 (-110)

The Red Raiders' ability to control tempo and limit transition opportunities should lead to a lower-scoring affair that stays under the total. While the neutral court helps Arizona's offense, Texas Tech's defensive prowess and four-game win streak make them the smart play as small favorites.

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