Duke vs Louisville ACC Title Game Odds: Blue Devils 6.5-Point Favorites After Flagg Injury
Duke faces Louisville in the ACC Tournament championship game without star player Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils opened as 6.5-point favorites with -285 moneyline odds (74.03% win probability), while Louisville sits at +230 as underdogs.
Player Knueppel dribbling basketball in action
Duke (30-3) lost Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury during their 78-70 quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech. They narrowly advanced past UNC 74-71 in the semifinals, with Kon Knueppel stepping up for 17 points.
Louisville (27-6) has completed a remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Pat Kelsey, going from last place to an 18-2 ACC record. The Cardinals enter on an 11-game win streak after defeating Stanford (75-73) and Clemson (76-73) to reach the final.
Key Factors:
- Duke won the regular season matchup at Louisville in December
- Flagg had 20 points and 9 rebounds in that earlier meeting
- Louisville is 5-5 against top-50 KenPom teams this season
- The Cardinals have lost only twice since their 6-5 start
Analysis: Duke showed vulnerability without Flagg against UNC, nearly blowing a 21-point lead. While still talented, losing their centerpiece significantly impacts their effectiveness. Louisville's momentum and strong play make them an appealing underdog bet.
Recommended Pick: Louisville moneyline (+235)
The lack of Flagg's presence combined with Louisville's recent form suggests value on the Cardinals to pull the upset and claim their first ACC Tournament championship.