KenPom's Top March Madness Betting Picks Revealed for 2025
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Based on a detailed analysis comparing KenPom projections with current DraftKings odds, here are the most valuable March Madness betting opportunities for the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round.
Top KenPom Pick: Oklahoma ML (+190) vs UConn
- KenPom projects a one-point UConn win
- Oklahoma has 48% win probability per KenPom
- Current odds imply only 34.48% win probability
- Significant value gap despite UConn's 12-game tournament win streak
Ole Miss vs North Carolina Value Play
- KenPom projects 77-76 Ole Miss victory
- Ole Miss ML at +102 (49.5% implied probability)
- KenPom gives Rebels 54% win probability
- Value exists despite UNC's impressive First Four performance
Notable Total Mismatches
- UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech
- Current total: 142.5
- KenPom projection: 147 (81-66 TTU)
- Largest total discrepancy (4.5 points)
Other Significant Total Discrepancies (3.5 points)
- New Mexico vs Marquette (153.5 vs 150)
- Drake vs Missouri (132.5 vs 136)
- Arkansas vs Kansas (145.5 vs 142)
These projections highlight significant gaps between market odds and KenPom's analytical predictions, potentially offering betting value in both moneyline and total markets for the NCAA Tournament's opening round.