March Madness First Round: #12 UC San Diego Faces #5 Michigan in Pivotal Clash

March Madness First Round: #12 UC San Diego Faces #5 Michigan in Pivotal Clash

By Michael Peterson

March 24, 2025 at 01:28 PM

The #12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4) face the #5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9) in a highly anticipated NCAA Tournament First Round matchup in Denver on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET.

Player crouching on basketball court

Player crouching on basketball court

Current Odds:

  • Michigan: -2.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
  • Moneyline: Michigan -120, UC San Diego +142
  • Total: 142.5 points (Under -112)

Key Team Statistics:

UC San Diego:

  • 30-4 overall record
  • 27-7 ATS (Against The Spread)
  • Ranked 6th nationally in defense (61.6 ppg allowed)
  • #1 defensive rating (91.4)
  • 15-game winning streak
  • Led by Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 ppg)

Michigan:

  • 25-9 overall record
  • 16-18 ATS
  • Recent Big 10 Tournament champions
  • First NCAA appearance under coach Dusty May
  • Significant size advantage in the frontcourt

Analysis: Michigan enters as slight favorites despite UC San Diego's impressive resume. The Tritons' defensive prowess (6th nationally) meets Michigan's tournament-tested coach Dusty May, who led Florida Atlantic to a Final Four appearance two years ago. The game's pace will be critical, as UC San Diego prefers a slower tempo (271st in adjusted tempo).

Key Factors:

  • Michigan's frontcourt size could be decisive
  • UC San Diego's exceptional ATS record (14-1 with 4+ days rest)
  • Both teams enter with momentum
  • Late start time (10:00 PM ET) could impact performance

Predictions:

  1. Under 142.5 points (-112)
  2. Michigan -2.5 points (-108)

The game will be broadcast on TBS, with the winner advancing to face either Texas A&M or Yale in the next round.

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