NFL MVP Sleeper Picks: Top Dark Horse Candidates to Watch

NFL MVP Sleeper Picks: Top Dark Horse Candidates to Watch

By Michael Peterson

February 16, 2025 at 08:33 AM

Looking for value picks in the NFL MVP race? Here are three compelling sleeper candidates who could surprise in 2022:

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)

  • Led Bengals to Super Bowl appearance in 2021
  • Ranked 6th in passing yards, 8th in TDs last season
  • Led NFL in completion % (70.4) and yards per attempt (8.9)
  • Improved offensive line addresses biggest weakness
  • Elite weapons including Ja'Marr Chase
  • Best MVP value among non-top 5 favorites

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (+2000)

  • Two-time Pro Bowler showing consistent growth
  • Dual-threat QB with rushing upside
  • Added Marquise Brown to complement DeAndre Hopkins
  • Similar skill set to former MVP Lamar Jackson
  • Has potential for 4,000+ passing yards and 800+ rushing yards
  • Could make major leap in year 4

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+5000)

  • Led NFL with 1,811 rushing yards in 2021
  • Added 360 receiving yards and 20 total TDs
  • Improved QB play with Matt Ryan could open up offense
  • Upgraded offensive line and reduced backfield competition
  • Last RB MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012
  • Tremendous value at 50-1 odds

These players have the talent and situations to potentially challenge the usual MVP favorites, making them intriguing bets at their current odds.

The MVP race typically favors quarterbacks, but all three of these candidates have realistic paths to contention through either elite dual-threat ability (Murray), a complete offensive package (Burrow), or historic rushing production (Taylor).

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