North Carolina vs Ole Miss Odds: Tar Heels Favored After First Four Domination

By Michael Peterson

March 28, 2025 at 04:28 PM

NBA player dribbling basketball

NBA player dribbling basketball

The #11 North Carolina Tar Heels face #6 Ole Miss Rebels as slight favorites on Friday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee (4:05 pm ET), following their decisive First Four victory over San Diego State.

Current betting odds show UNC as 1.5-point favorites (-115) with a -125 moneyline, implying a 55.56% win probability. Ole Miss sits at +105 as underdogs (48.78% implied probability).

The total has moved significantly from the opening 152.5 to 155.5 (-110 both ways). UNC's over/under record stands at 19-17 this season, while Ole Miss is 17-16.

Analytics Projections:

  • KenPom and Torvik: Ole Miss by 1 point
  • Haslam: UNC by 0.5 points
  • Projected totals range from 154.7 (Haslam) to 157 (Torvik)

Public Betting Trends:

  • Moneyline: 70% of handle on UNC (64% of bets)
  • Against the spread: 87% of handle on UNC (71% of bets)
  • Total: 65% of money and bets on over 155.5

The strong public backing of North Carolina reflects both their impressive First Four performance and traditional blue-blood status, though analytics sites remain split on the predicted winner.

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