March Madness 2025: Top Bracket Busters and Underdog Betting Picks for First Round
The NCAA Tournament brings the excitement of potential bracket-busting upsets. Here are the most promising underdogs and upset picks for March Madness 2025.
Two basketball players face off court
Most Likely First-Round Upsets:
#12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis
- Rams are betting favorites
- Top 3 in Mountain West scoring offense and defense
#10 Arkansas over #7 Kansas
- Strong SEC defensive team (6th best in conference)
- Well-equipped to challenge the Jayhawks
#12 UC San Diego over #5 Michigan
- Impressive 30-4 record
- #1 in Big West scoring defense
- #3 in conference scoring
High-Risk, High-Reward Upset Picks:
#13 Akron over Arizona
- Top MAC scoring offense (84.6 PPG)
- Arizona's defense ranks 13th in conference
- Odds: +750 (11.6% probability)
#14 Troy over Kentucky
- Top-3 Sun Belt defense
- Kentucky allows 77.9 PPG (second-last in SEC)
- Odds: +500 (16.67% probability)
#15 Bryant over MSU
- American East scoring leaders (86.4 PPG)
- Odds: +1250 (7.41% probability)
Best Value Betting Underdogs:
New Mexico (+150)
- Mountain West's top scoring team (81.2 PPG)
- 34.7% from three-point range
- 4th in KenPom tempo rankings
- Facing struggling Marquette (lost 3 of last 4)
Grand Canyon (+450)
- WAC scoring leaders (79.9 PPG)
- 18.18% implied win probability
- Matchup against high-scoring Maryland (81.7 PPG)
Remember to consider team momentum, scoring ability, and defensive prowess when making your upset picks. While higher-seed upsets are less common, they often provide the best betting value in the tournament.